The Ballon d’Or winner will be announced in London on 26 October, and bookmakers have Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane very close together as the clear favourites. Yamal won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain, while Kane scored 73 goals for German champions Bayern Munich and England.
Eight-time winner Lionel Messi, of Argentina and Inter Miami, and Real Madrid’s France forward Kylian Mbappe are the other probable candidates. Paris St-Germain’s back-to-back European champions also have a strong case. We asked our football experts who they think should take home the award.
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal is just one of five teenagers to start a World Cup final and win it.
European football expert Guillem Balague says it is hard to imagine the Ballon d’Or going to anyone other than a PSG or Spanish player, so Mbappe is out of contention. He points to the number of PSG players in the mix, including Fabian Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Vitinha, which he believes will split the vote. In his view, only one Spaniard deserves it: Yamal, who has delivered individual performances, collective trophies and an undeniable aura. “He’s going to win it,” Balague says.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is a two-time Champions League winner with PSG.
European football expert Julien Laurens believes Kvaratskhelia was the best player in Europe last season, particularly in the Champions League, where he was outstanding in helping PSG win another title. He scored in both semi-finals and the quarter-final, got the penalty in the final, and also scored in the last 16. “He was amazing in those huge, huge games where you want your best players to step up,” Laurens says.
However, Laurens thinks Yamal will win it. Although Yamal did not really shine at the World Cup, even though Spain won it, and did not do well in the Champions League for Barcelona, where they were knocked out early, his style of play is entertaining and spectacular. “It should be Kvaratskhelia,” Laurens says.
Former Liverpool and Blackburn full-back Stephen Warnock also expects Yamal to win, for helping Spain lift the World Cup. He says Michael Olise is also in the hunt, but he would personally pick Kvaratskhelia, whom he describes as unbelievable. He doubts Kvaratskhelia will attract the votes, however, because Georgia did not qualify for the World Cup.
Athletic reporter Rory Smith expects the award to go to Yamal, because it usually goes to the player who has won the biggest trophy, which in this case is the World Cup. He does not think Yamal was necessarily Spain’s most important player, but says his fame and talent will carry him. Smith would give the award to Kvaratskhelia, whom he calls the most exciting player in European club football for a while now. He notes that Kvaratskhelia was a valuable part of the PSG team that retained the Champions League, and argues that a player should not be penalised for coming from a country that is not in the running to win the World Cup.
Harry Kane
Harry Kane scored six goals at the 2026 World Cup for England.
Former England striker Alan Shearer says Kane should win the Ballon d’Or, pointing to sensational numbers over the last 12 to 18 months for both Bayern and England. Former England midfielder Danny Murphy agrees, describing Kane’s goalscoring as relentless and brilliant. He says Kane has had one of the best seasons of his career and has been the best centre-forward in the world for the last 12 months.
Former Tottenham and Crystal Palace forward Andros Townsend makes the strongest statistical case. Kane scored 73 goals in 65 games, 36 of them in the Bundesliga. He led Bayern Munich to the league and cup double, scored 14 goals in the Champions League, helping Bayern to the semi-finals, and scored six goals at the World Cup, leading England to the semi-finals. “He has had an outstanding year,” Townsend says.
Former England striker Ellen White admits it is a tough call but says she will go with her heart. She would love to see Kane win it, even though he did not win the World Cup, and she describes his numbers as absolutely extraordinary. White acknowledges that Yamal had a few injuries, but notes he won the World Cup and she is sure he will win the Ballon d’Or one day. She also praises Michael Olise, whom she calls phenomenal.
Norwegian football journalist Lars Sivertsen also wants to see Kane win. He describes Kane as a real leader at Bayern who never causes trouble and is a role model. However, Sivertsen wonders whether Kane’s low-key character works against him. “The Ballon d’Or is a popularity contest,” he says. “I love that he doesn’t do all that, but maybe he should.”